An expensive stock market did not prevent traders from getting more bullish as investors increasingly bet that the bull run could keep chugging along, according to Charles Schwab’s new quarterly client survey.
The bulls continue to outnumber the bears among traders 51% to 34%, according to Schwab’s survey, which polled 1,040 active traders last month. Young traders under the age of 40 especially showed a spike in optimism, with bullishness jumping to 59%. That compares to 47% in the fourth quarter. The positive sentiment came even as two-thirds of the traders believe the market is overvalued, the survey said.
“It’s clear that the majority of traders believe there’s some froth in the market but on balance they also feel like there’s still more room for the bulls to run,” said James Kostulias, head of trading services at Charles Schwab. “More than half of traders plan to move additional money into stocks in Q1,” Kostulias added.
While bullishness indicates positive views on the market, it can also be seen as a contrary indicator when there are signs of excess.
After a booming two-year period in which the S&P 500 climbed more than 50%, the momentum has slowed as of late with rising concerns about an economic slowdown and heightened volatility from rapid policy changes from the new administration. The equity benchmark is only up 1.3% on the year, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has dipped into negative territory for 2025.
In terms of sectors, traders are most bullish on energy, tech, finance and utilities. These sectors are typically beneficiaries under the Trump administration due to potential deregulation.
The survey also detected a significant drop in the number of traders who believe a recession will occur in the U.S. Only a third of the respondents called it “somewhat likely,” compared to 54% in the prior quarter.
The majority of traders also did not see a reacceleration in inflation, with two-thirds of them seeing price pressures holding steady.